膜科学与技术

位置：首页 >> 期刊内容阅读

基于模糊故障树的中空纤维膜分离器可靠性分析

作者：李天伦，王伟，石文华，贺高红，肖武

单位： 1. 大连理工大学精细化工国家重点实验室，膜科学与技术研究开发中心，辽宁大连116024 2. 辽宁庆阳特种化工有限公司，辽宁辽阳 111000

关键词：中空纤维膜分离器；可靠性；故障树分析；模糊集理论；专家意见法

DOI号：

分类号： TQ051.8

出版年,卷(期):页码： 2022,42(2):95-102

摘要：

通过对气体分离的中空纤维膜分离器几何结构、材料特性和工艺分析，确定了封装胶黏剂失效、腐蚀性气体和操作温度过低等12个基本事件，以及密封失败、壳体被腐蚀和膜丝失效等9个中间事件；以膜分离器失效为顶事件，利用故障模式机理和模糊集合理论，建立了模糊故障树模型。设计了基本事件发生概率专家调查表，遴选了10位专家的反馈意见，将三角形模糊数和梯形模糊数相结合，利用相似度聚合法计算获得基本事件的发生概率。通过对故障树模型的定性分析，确定了最小割集和最小径集，并对基本事件的结构重要度进行了排序。基于故障树最小割集的F-VI和RRW的排名计算，确定了重要度最高的最小割集为MC9（有机溶剂蒸汽凝结），重要度最低的最小割集为MC6（膜丝溶胀）。通过对模糊故障树模型进行定量分析，经计算得顶事件气体膜分离故障的概率为3.285%，符合经验值。对基本事件进行了结构重要度、概率重要度和临界重要度分析和排序，确定了排名前三的基本事件依次是除雾器故障、操作压力过高、有机凝液致胶黏剂溶解。

Through the analysis of the geometric structure, material characteristics and membrane separation process of the hollow fiber membrane separator, 12 basic events were identified such as failure of packaging adhesive, corrosive gas, and low operating temperature, as well as 9 intermediate events such as seal failure, shell corrosion, membrane filament failure, etc., with membrane separator failure as the top event, using the failure mode mechanism and fuzzy set theory to establish the fuzzy fault tree model of the gas membrane separator. An expert questionnaire for the occurrence of basic events was designed, and feedback from 10 experts was selected, combining the triangular fuzzy number and the trapezoidal fuzzy number, using similarity aggregation method to calculate the occurrence probability of basic events. Through the qualitative analysis of the fault tree model, the minimum cut set and the minimum path set of the fault tree are determined, and the structural importance of the basic events is sorted. Based on the ranking calculation of F-VI and RRW of the minimum cut set of the fault tree, it is determined that the minimum cut set with the highest importance is MC9 (organic solvent vapor condensation) and the minimum cut set with the lowest importance is MC6 (membrane fiber swelling). Through the quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree model, the top event failure probability of the gas membrane separation is calculated to be 3.285%, which accords with the empirical value. The structural importance, probability importance and critical importance of the basic events were analyzed and sorted, and the top three basic events were determined to be defogger failure, excessive operating pressure, and dissolution of the adhesive caused by organic condensate.

基金项目：

国家基金委创新研究群体 (22021005)；国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFE0119200）。

作者简介：

李天伦(1997－)，男，山东烟台人，本科生。研究方向：膜分离器可靠性分析

参考文献：

[1] 邱天然, 况彩菱, 郑祥, 等. 全球气体膜分离技术的研究和应用趋势——基于近20年SCI论文和专利的分析[J]. 化工进展, 2016, 35(7): 2299-2308.
[2] 莫凯, 问菲, 金花, 等. ZIF-8膜分离丙烯/丙烷的研究进展[J]. 膜科学与技术, 2020, 40(2): 136-145.
[3] 宗传欣, 丁晓斌, 南江普, 等. 膜法VOCs气体分离技术研究进展[J]. 膜科学与技术, 2020, 40(1): 284-293.
[4] Ericson C A. Fault tree analysis[C]//System Safety Conference, Orlando, Florida: [s.l.], 1999, 1: 1-9.
[5] 潘学文, 张福生, 路超. 基于故障树的故障诊断专家系统设计[J]. 煤矿机械, 2021, 42(3): 174-176.
[6] 谭润泽, 李晓彬, 杜志鹏, 等. 基于模糊理论的PMT水下防爆试验故障树分析[J]. 振动、测试与诊断, 2021, 42(3): 174-176.
[7] Tanaka H, Fan L T, Lai F S, et al. Fault-Tree Analysis by Fuzzy Probability[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 1983, R-32(5): 453-457.
[8] 霍壮志, 王云霞, 曹芳芳, 等. 基于模糊故障树的城轨列车客室塞拉门的可靠性分析[J]. 南京工程学院学报, 2019, 17 (02): 48-54.
[9] 闫小红. 基于模糊故障树的矿井提升机故障诊断分析[J]. 机电设备与仪器仪表, 2019, 0（6）: 62-68.
[10] 李文锋, 游庆和, 廖强, 等. 基于T-S模糊FTA的远程故障诊断方法研究[J]. 控制工程, 2018, 25(09): 1703-1708.
[11] Hsu H M, Chen C T. Aggregation of fuzzy opinions under group decision making[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 1996, 79(3): 279-285.
[12] Lavasani S M , Zendegani A , Celik M . An extension to Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) application in petrochemical process industry[J]. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2015, 93:75-88.
[13] Yazdi M, Nikfar F, Nasrabadi M. Failure probability analysis by employing fuzzy fault tree analysis[J]. International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, 2017, 8(2): 1177-1193.
[14] Dong Y H, Yu D T. Estimation of failure probability of oil and gas transmission pipelines by fuzzy fault tree analysis[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2005, 18(2): 83-88.
[15] 何玉发, 刘清友, 朱永有, 肖辞源. 基于故障树的常减压装置模糊综合评判分析[J]. 石油化工设备, 2007, (04): 76-80.
[16] 都心爽, 武玮, 张金阳, 淡勇. 基于三角直觉模糊故障树的工业管道安全评价方法与应用[J]. 西北大学学报(自然科学版), 2021, 51(04): 632-642.
[17] Onisawa, T. An approach to human reliability in man–machine systems using error possibility[J]. Fuzzy Sets and System, 1988, 27：87-103.
[18] 韩秋, 周浩力, 刘公平, 等. PDMS/PVDF复合膜分离VOC/N2的性能研究[J]. 膜科学与技术, 2015, 35(1): 75-81.

服务与反馈：

【文章下载】【加入收藏】

《膜科学与技术》编辑部地址：北京市朝阳区北三环东路19号蓝星大厦邮政编码：100029 电话：010-64426130/64433466 传真：010-80485372邮箱：mkxyjs@163.com